What Happens to a Watch's Value When It's Discontinued?
What happens to a watch's value when it's discontinued: why some references jump and others fade, the Patek 5711 example, and how dealers should respond.
By Dejan Zoric
Updated 4 min read
The short answer
When a watch is discontinued, its value can rise, hold or fall. Prices tend to rise when the model was already in high demand, its replacement is noticeably different, and supply is limited. They tend to stay flat or fall when lots were made, the replacement is simply better, or demand was weak. The best-known example is the Patek Philippe 5711, whose secondary prices surged after its discontinuation was announced in 2021.
Key takeaways
- Discontinuation doesn't automatically raise value.
- Demand, distinctiveness and supply decide what happens.
- Spikes often come fast, and can fade.
- Last-production examples with recent card dates can carry premiums.
- Price each reference on real sold data, not headlines.
On this page
Every year, brands quietly retire references and introduce new ones. For collectors and dealers, a discontinuation can be the moment a watch's value takes off, or a non-event. Here's what actually happens, and how to think about it.
Why discontinuation can raise a watch's value
When a reference stops being made, the supply of new examples ends. From then on, the only way to get one is the secondary market. If demand stays strong, prices rise. That effect is strongest when:
- The watch was already in high demand and hard to get at retail.
- The replacement is noticeably different: a new case, dial, bezel or bracelet that some buyers like less.
- It was the last of something: the last generation with a certain movement, material or design.
- Production was limited, or the model was only made for a short time.
- It has a story or a nickname collectors attach to it.
The most famous example: the Patek Philippe 5711
The steel Nautilus 5711 was already one of the hardest watches in the world to buy at retail. When Patek Philippe discontinued it in January 2021, secondary prices climbed sharply. One example from a final 170-piece edition made with Tiffany & Co. sold at Phillips in December 2021 for $6.5 million, many times its original retail price, in a sale for charity.[1]
That auction was an extreme case (a charity sale of a one-off piece of a tiny edition), but it shows what discontinuation can do to a watch that was already a phenomenon.
Why many discontinued watches don't go up
Discontinuation isn't magic. Values often stay flat, or fall, when:
- Lots were made. Plenty of supply remains on the secondary market.
- The replacement is simply better: a new movement, longer power reserve or improved bracelet that buyers prefer.
- Demand was weak to begin with. A watch nobody rushed to buy new won't suddenly become a grail.
- The market is cooling. In a soft market, even desirable references can drift.
Most discontinued watches end up trading like any other pre-owned watch: priced on condition, set and demand.
Spikes can fade
Discontinuation spikes are often driven by headlines and fear of missing out. Some settle at a permanently higher level; others give back much of the gain once the excitement passes and the market sees how much supply is really out there. Buying at the top of a spike is one of the classic mistakes (see 12 common mistakes new watch dealers make).
What changes for the watch itself
- Last-production examples with recent card dates can carry a premium.
- Unworn and full-set examples become rarer, and usually more valuable, over time.
- Variants matter more. Dial versions, bezel colours and bracelet types from the final years can trade very differently.
- Service parts for older references remain available from many brands for years, but original parts on a discontinued model become more important to collectors.
How dealers should respond
- Don't buy on rumours. Discontinuation rumours are common and often wrong. Brands usually reveal changes at their annual launches.
- Check real sold prices for the specific reference and variant, before and after the news.
- Know which examples are most desirable: final years, full sets, unworn, specific dials.
- Decide quickly but carefully. If you hold a discontinued reference in demand, the best selling window can be short.
- Don't overpay at the peak. If you're buying into a spike, make sure the price still works if the hype fades.
On Soda, real dealer price history shows how a reference has actually traded between verified dealers over time, so you can see whether a discontinuation spike is holding or fading.
The bottom line
Discontinuation can send a watch's value up, but only when demand, distinctiveness and limited supply line up. Plenty of discontinued watches simply trade like any other pre-owned piece. Judge each reference on real sold prices, be wary of spikes, and never buy purely as a bet. For the bigger picture, see which watches hold their value.
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Questions dealers ask
Do discontinued watches go up in value?
Some do, many don't. Watches that were already in high demand, are distinctive and were made in limited numbers often rise. Models that were produced in large numbers or replaced by a clearly better version often don't.
Do discontinued Rolex models increase in value?
Some well-known discontinued Rolex references have traded at strong premiums, especially distinctive ones in high demand. But it depends on the specific reference and the market at the time, and prices can move both ways.
Why did the Patek Philippe 5711 go up after it was discontinued?
It was already one of the most in-demand watches in the world and hard to get at retail. When Patek Philippe discontinued it in January 2021, buyers rushed for the remaining supply, and secondary prices climbed sharply.
Should I buy a watch before it's discontinued?
Only if you'd want it anyway. Discontinuation rumours are often wrong, and even real discontinuations don't guarantee a price rise. Never buy a watch purely as a bet.